Proceedings of the 2015 Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting (Paper 15-0254)
Cities are increasingly developing greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation plans and reduction targets based on a growing body of knowledge about climate change risks, and changes to passenger transportation are often at the center of these efforts. Yet little information exists for characterizing how quickly or slowly GHG emissions reductions will accrue given changes in urban form around transit, and whether benefits will accrue quickly enough to meet policy year targets (such as reaching 20% of 1990 GHG emissions levels by 2050). Even more complicated is when cities focus on achieving GHG reductions through integrated transportation and land use planning, as changes in emissions can occur across many sectors (such as transportation, building energy use, and electricity generation). Using the Los Angeles Expo line, a framework is developed to assess how financing schemes change the rate of redevelopment and resulting life-cycle GHG emissions from travel and building energy use. The framework leverages an integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment model that captures upfront construction of new development near transit and the long-term changes in household energy use for travel and buildings. The results show that for the same amount of development around the Expo line it is possible to either meet (if aggressive redevelopment happens early) or not meet (if redevelopment starts decades out) state GHG goals by 2050. The time-based approach reveals how specific redevelopment schedules are needed for a city to reduce GHG emissions at a rate that meets future targets.